The study, “The predictive power of first recruits to commercial trial performance”, was led by Dr Martin Batty, Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust’s Head of Research and Development, and is published in BMC Medical Research Methodology.  

A key challenge in clinical trial delivery is recruiting sufficient participants within agreed timeframes. This new research shows that the timing of the first recruit to a study or site is a strong indicator of a trial’s subsequent success. 

The study analysed a large national dataset from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), covering commercial trials carried out across the UK over a 15-year period between 2010 and 2024. It included nearly 30,000 site observations from 4,849 individual studies.  

Trial sites that recruited their first participant more quickly were much more likely to meet their recruitment targets. Conversely, sites that took longer to enrol their first participant were significantly less likely to do so, with the probability of a site meeting its target dropping to less than 50% if it took more than eight months to recruit its first participant.  

The study also found that sites that recruited ‘first’ participants (whether globally, in Europe, or in the UK) were more likely to meet target.  

The study highlights the role of research teams and organisations in preparing sites quickly and effectively. Better planning, coordination, and early action could help improve the UK’s performance in delivering commercial clinical trials. 

Dr Batty said: “These findings are important because they highlight the important of rapid study recruitment and quantify trial success. Given the intense national focus on the 150-day set up target, the findings are particularly timely.”